The Iraqi nuclear agreement is pushing up international oil prices
Issue Time:2018-05-09
As the result of America's withdrawal from the Iraq nuclear agreement is about to come out, market worries rise, and New York's light crude oil and London's Beihai Brent crude oil futures have climbed to a high of more than 3 years at 7. Among them, New York's oil price has exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time since November 2014. Most analysts believe that under the dual role of geopolitical risk and market supply and demand, international oil prices still have room for improvement this year.

Halima Croft, an analyst at the capital markets of Royal Bank of Canada, said that most investors expect the United States to impose sanctions on Iraq in many areas such as energy, finance, trade and insurance, which will affect Iran's crude oil exports.

Since the international community has stopped economic sanctions against Iran, Iran has become one of the world's major oil producing countries. Insiders believe that US sanctions or Iran crude oil daily sales decreased by 300 thousand barrels to 600 thousand barrels. The tightening of international crude oil supply is nothing short of "adding insult to injury". The global crude oil supply reduction will push up future international oil prices.

After Trump took office, he repeatedly said that the Iran nuclear agreement was "the worst agreement in history". In January this year, Trump announced the "last" extension of the U.S. sanctions exemption against Iran's nuclear issue, which he decided May 12th as the deadline for revising the Iranian nuclear agreement, and said the United States would be out of the agreement if there was no satisfactory amendment.

Trump sent a message on twitter 7, announcing that the United States will withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement on the afternoon of 8, which is 4 days ahead of schedule. However, Britain, France, Germany and other countries reiterated their support for the agreement 7 days ago, saying that even if the US side withdrew, they would also maintain the agreement.

At the same time, the balance between market supply and demand is also one of the driving forces for the recent rise in international oil prices. OPEC, OPEC and Russia and other non OPEC oil producers decided last November to extend the existing oil production reduction agreement to the end of 2018.  According to the agreement, the major oil producing countries have reduced about 1 million 800 thousand barrels of crude oil a day to ease the market oversupply.

Due to the expected impact of the balance of supply and demand, international oil prices rose all the way from $30 a barrel in early 2016. OPEC Secretary General Barkindo recently said that since January this year, the global oversupply of crude oil has changed significantly.

Yang Tao, an analytical capital management partner in energy transactions, expects international oil prices to be between $60 and $80 a barrel in the second half of this year, with various factors intertwined. In the short term, he believes, uncertainty in geopolitics and the trend of the dollar in the Middle East will continue to support the rise in oil prices, but at the same time, the slow demand for crude oil and the emergence of new energy will also inhibit oil prices.

As of 7, the New York Mercantile Exchange's June light crude oil futures price rose 1.01 US dollars, closing at 70.73 US dollars per barrel, or 1.45%. Beihai Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 1.30 US dollars to close at $76.17 a barrel, or 1.74%.
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