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On the Trend of Two-way Fluctuation of RMB Exchange Rate in the Short Term

On the Trend of Two-way Fluctuation of RMB Exchange Rate in the Short Term

Issue Time:2019-08-28
Influenced by the short-term rise of the US dollar, the external market environment and hedging sentiment, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1528 on the 26th, closing at its lowest price in 11 and a half years, and the offshore RMB also dipped to 7.1835 on the morning of the same day. Data from the China Foreign Exchange Exchange Trading Center show that the intermediate price of RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 2 basis points to 7.0570 on the 26th.

Industry insiders said that the decline of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is a manifestation of short-term market sentiment. Recently, the US dollar has strengthened, and the decline of the RMB is a normal fluctuation. In the long run, the exchange rate will still be determined by the economic fundamentals, and the RMB has no basis for sustained depreciation. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate smoothly and bidirectionally in a reasonable range in the future.

Data show that China's foreign exchange market has maintained good order since August, and its resilience to external shocks has increased significantly. From the perspective of foreign-related transactions of enterprises and individuals in China, there has been a small surplus in the settlement and sale of foreign exchange since August, and the cross-border revenue and expenditure have maintained a basic balance. Wang Chunying, spokesman and chief economist of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said recently that this fully reflects the supporting role of the domestic economy in basically facing the stability of the foreign exchange market, indicating that China's foreign exchange market is more mature and rational, and can better absorb and adapt to changes in the external environment. We will continue to maintain the continuity and stability of foreign exchange management policies, continuously improve the level of cross-border trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, further consolidate the foundation of stable operation of foreign exchange market, and serve the development of real economy and the new pattern of comprehensive opening-up of the country.

UBS Securities in its latest report predicts that China will continue to deepen reform and open up, the central bank will carefully manage the expectations of the RMB exchange rate, but will allow a small devaluation of the RMB, which is expected to be 7.2 at the end of 2019 and 7.3 at the end of 2020.

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