PVC Spot market prices fall in the first half of 2023
According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PVC market fell from January to June 2023. On January 1st, the average spot price of PVC carbide method SG5 in China was 6141.67 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average price was 5503.33 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price fell by 10.39%.
2、 Market analysis
Product Market
Looking at the development of PVC market in the first half of 2023, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated and rose mainly in January. Prices rose first and then fell in February. Prices fluctuated and fell in March. Prices fell from April to June.
In the first quarter, PVC carbide SG5 spot prices fluctuated and mainly operated in a fluctuating manner. The cumulative decline from January to March was 0.73%. In January, the price of PVC Spot market rose, and the PVC cost support was good around the Spring Festival. The downstream resumption of production in February was less than expected, and the PVC Spot market fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall. The sharp decrease in raw material calcium carbide prices in March resulted in weak cost support. The price of PVC Spot market fell in March. As of March 31st, the quotation range for domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5830-6250 yuan/ton.
In the second quarter, PVC carbide method SG5 spot sales were mainly down. The cumulative decline from April to June was 9.73%. In April, the price of raw material calcium carbide continued to decline, with weak cost support and high PVC inventory, resulting in a continuous downward trend in spot prices. In May, the demand for orders in the downstream market was sluggish, leading to poor overall procurement, traders would not hoard more goods, and the price of PVC Spot market continued to decline. In June, the demand for orders in the downstream market was general, the overall inventory pressure in the market was large, and the price of PVC Spot market fell in shock. As of June 30th, the quotation range for domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5300-5700 yuan/ton.
Production aspect
According to industry data, the domestic PVC production in June 2023 was 1.756 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% month on month and 3.72% year on year. The cumulative production from January to June was 11.1042 million tons. Among them, the production of PVC using carbide method was 1.2887 million tons, a decrease of 8.47% compared to May and a decrease of 12.03% compared to June last year. The production of PVC using ethylene method was 467300 tons, an increase of 2.23% compared to May and an increase of 30.25% compared to June last year.
In terms of operating rate
According to industry data, the domestic PVC operating rate in June 2023 was 75.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.67% and a month on month decrease of 4.72%.
Import and export aspects
In May 2023, the import volume of pure PVC powder in China was 22100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03% and a month on month decrease of 42.36%. The average monthly import price was 858.81. The export volume was 140300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.25% and a month on month increase of 3.97%. The monthly average export price was 810.72. The total export volume from January to May was 928300 tons, while the total import volume was 212900 tons.
Upstream calcium carbide aspect
In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region decreased from January to June. The average factory price of calcium carbide on January 1st was 3700 yuan/ton, and on June 30th it was 2883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.07%. The prices of upstream raw materials, such as blue charcoal, have stabilized at a low level, and there is insufficient support for the cost of calcium carbide. Some calcium carbide enterprises have started to resume production, and the circulation of goods has increased. The downstream PVC market is declining, and downstream demand is weak. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early July, with consolidation being the main trend.
3、 Future Market Forecast
PVC analysts from the business agency believe that in the second half of the year, the PVC Spot market will continue to operate in a range of shocks. Pay more attention to the upstream calcium carbide situation and the downstream market demand. In addition, changes in terminal real estate policies are also important factors affecting the current two cities. It is expected that PVC spot prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.
China calcium carbide CAC2 manufacturer and exporter
New Ocean Group Co.Limited
Mobile/Wechat/WhatsApp:0086 13682119955
E-Mail:jennifer@ngochem.com
Web:www.ngochem.com
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